Scenario Analysis

Using a scenario analysis, the values of individual business figures can be calculated differently for any number of scenarios to be considered.

For this purpose, additional calculations for scenarios can be entered in the Control File below the ‘normal’ calculations. In doing so, any function from the Function Library can be used.

• If no command for a scenario is contained in the Control File for a business figure, the value of the business figure in this scenario is calculated using the same formula as in the ‘normal’ forecast.

• The order in which the business figures are calculated for each scenario corresponds to the order in which the ‘normal’ business figures are calculated.

• The order of the business figures in the scenario calculations must therefore always be identical to the order of the business figures in the ‘normal’ calculation. This is the only way that gaps can be recognised and supplemented by the ‘normal’ calculations.

With a scenario analysis, for example, it is possible to generate a stress testing of a balance sheet simulation: For a ‘bad’ scenario, the formulas for the calculation in the Control File are adjusted in such a way that lower results are achieved, and for a ‘good’ scenario, the formulas for the calculation in the Control File are adjusted in such a way that higher results are achieved.

Using this Function

Syntax

In the Control File, a scenario analysis can be called up as follows:

[account]_SCENARIO = ...

Parameters

[account]

Business figure for which a value should be calculated in the context of a scenario analysis.
This must be contained in the following input data: Input Files | Financial-Data

{_}[SCENARIO]

Name of the scenario, for which the value of the business figure is to be calculated.
This can be chosen freely.

Examples

The examples below are based on the following data:

• value of the business figure [10001]: 10,000.00

• value of the business figure [10002]: 24,500.00

• value of the business figure [10003]: 47,600.00

• value of the business figure [30001]: 3,150.00

Example 1

[10002]_BEST = [10002] * 1.05

• value of the business figure [10002] in scenario BEST: 24,500.00 * 1.05 = 25,725.00

Example 2

[10003]_BEST = [10003] + 1000
[10003]_WORST = [10003] - 10%

• value of the business figure [10003] in scenario BEST: 47,600.00 + 1,000.00 = 48,600.00

• value of the business figure [10003] in scenario WORST: 47,600.00 * 0.9 = 42,840.00

Example 3

[30001]_BEST = ([10002]_BEST + [10003]_BEST) * (Forecast Reference rate + 0.3%) 

• official forecast of the reference rate: 4.2%

• value of the business figure [10002] in scenario BEST (see Scenario Analysis | Example-1): 25,725.00

• value of the business figure [10003] in scenario BEST (see Scenario Analysis | Example-2): 48,600.00

• value of the business figure [30001] in scenario BEST: (25,725.00 + 48,600.00) * (4.2% + 0.3%) = 3,344.63

Example 4

[10001] - 5%
[10002] + 500
[10003] + 2400
[111] = [10002] + [10003]
[30001] + 350
[10002]_BEST = [10002] + 2000
[10003]_BEST = [10003] + 10%

• new value of the business figure [10001]: 10,000.00 * 0.95 = 9,500.00

• new value of the business figure [10002]: 24,500.00 + 500.00 = 25,000.00

• new value of the business figure [10003]: 47,600.00 + 2,400.00 = 50,000.00

• new value of the business figure [111]: 25,000.00 + 50,000.00 = 75,000.00

• new value of the business figure [30001]: 3,150.00 + 350.00 = 3,500.00

• value of the business figure [10001] in scenario BEST: 9.500.00 ( = value of the business figure [10001], since no command is specified for business figure [10001] in scenario BEST)

• value of the business figure [10002] in scenario BEST: 25,000.00 + 2,000.00 = 27,000.00

• value of the business figure [10003] in scenario BEST: 50,000.00 * 1.1 = 55,000.00

• value of the business figure [111] in scenario BEST: 27,000.00 + 55,000.00 = 82,000.00 (same formula as in the ‘normal’ forecast but using the values of scenario BEST)

• value of the business figure [30001] in scenario BEST: 3,500.00 ( = value of the business figure [30001], since no command is specified for business figure [30001] in scenario BEST)