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----------------------------------------------------------- INPUT -----------------------------------------------------------
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input sample_FINANCE_DATA.xlsx financial
input sample_forecast_INPUTS.xlsx
input sample_CUSTOMERS.xlsx

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--------------------------------------------------------- SIMULATION --------------------------------------------------------
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loop over 5 years

-- Scenario BASE
[10001] + 5%
[10002] = Forecast trend
[10003] + Volume change in relation to reference rate
[10003] + Volume change in relation to unemployment rate
[10004] = - ([10002] * Forecast PD in relation to reference rate based on [10002] + [10003] * Forecast PD in relation to reference rate based on [10003])
[10005] + Volume change in relation to reference rate based on [10003] / 2
[10006] = Linear regression in relation to reference rate
[10008] = Forecast trend
[11000] = sum [10001] to [10008]
[20001] = Moving average over 3 periods
[20002] = Linear regression in relation to reference rate and unemployment rate
[20003] + Volume change in relation to reference rate based on [20002] delayed by 1 year / 3
[20004] + 50
[20005] * 0.75
[20007] = Straight line
[21000] = sum [20001] to [20007]
[30001] = ([10002] + [10003]) * (Forecast Reference rate + 0.3%)
[30002] = [10005] * (Forecast Reference rate + 0.75%)
[30003] = - ([20001] + [20002] + [20003]) * (Forecast Reference rate - 0.4%)
[30005] = 1250
[30006] = (800, 800, 800, 900, 900)
[30008] = [10006] * (Forecast Reference rate + 0.25%)
[31000] = sum [30001] to [30008]
[40001] + (10, 2%, 5%, 5%, 5%)
[40002] - 10
[41000] = sum [40001] to [40007]
[42000] = [31000] + [41000]
[51000] = [42000] + [50001] + [50002]
[60001] * (1, 1.1, 1, 1, 1)
[61000] = [51000] + [60001]
[71000] = [61000] + [70001] + [70002]

-- Scenario BEST
[10001]_BEST = [10001] + 500
[10002]_BEST = [10002] + 5%
[10003]_BEST = [10003] * 1.08
[10005]_BEST = [10005] + 250
[20004]_BEST = [20004] + 750
[20007]_BEST = [20007] + 1000
[30001]_BEST = ([10002]_BEST + [10003]_BEST) * (Forecast Reference rate + 0.3%)
[30002]_BEST = [10005]_BEST * (Forecast Reference rate + 0.75%)
[40001]_BEST = [40001] / 1.1

-- Scenario WORST
[10001]_WORST = [10001] - 750
[10005]_WORST = [10005] - 500
[20004]_WORST = [20004] - 500
[20007]_WORST = [20007] - 1000
[40001]_WORST = [40001] * 1.1


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---------------------------------------------------------- OUTPUT -----------------------------------------------------------
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output sample_forecast_OUTPUTS.xlsx